Introduction 

My value comes from a deep passion to help companies succeed. My value does not come from perfection, or always getting it right. Rather, the relentless pursuit to get it right. As much as I love the outcomes trusting my gut has provided, I have learned plenty of lessons along the way. Afterall, anyone who strives to make a big impact or provide innovation is going to fail…alot. The silver lining from these failures comes from knowledge and understanding that missing the mark brings. Oftentimes, knowing what to do, is born from knowing what not to do. When viewed in that light, a failure is an investment in the future if we take the time to review the takeaways from any failure. The lessons learned series take a close look at a specific time I missed the mark and why. In this instance, a time I was dead wrong about a new product's potential success.

Only 2000!

In 2017 the commercial group at Moog Music was preparing for the upcoming release of the Moog DFAM, a percussive synthesizer that created unique patterns and compositions. This instrument created rhythmic elements and patterns, and wasn't quite a drum machine but also not quite a straight forward synthesizer. The product itself is not important in this story, instead it is the knowledge that this product was a one-of-a-kind instrument for a niche audience.

The company was buzzing from the excitement that comes from new product development. The engineering and supply team were qualifying vendors and getting ready to lock in their year 1 forecasts. As the marketing and sales team met to discuss the lifecycle of the instrument, various leaders and team members offered their opinions on the long term success of this to be released instrument. This is where I made my critical mistake.  When it became my turn to offer up an opinion I boldly stated “we should only make 2000.” I went on to passionately state the reasons to limit the production. I outlined missing features and cautioned against limited adoption outside the core loyal fanbase. My intention was to advise for an approach that lowered expectations of continued sales after the initial launch period. I believed the product would spike at release and quickly fade away. It would be beneficial because it would increase attention on other products in the family, but it would be a flash in the pan.  It would be best to ensure our supplier commitments were not too aggressive and avoid future inventory bloat. Limiting the production from the start could create urgency and demand and we could later determine a version 2 of the product for mass market adoption. As counter opinions were offered I stayed true to my gut - only 2,000. I rested my case and I was pleased at the smart and conservative path I was lobbying for.

I was wrong. Dead wrong. The DFAM was released in 2018 and is yet to undergo any version update. It is still in production at the time of this writing. It has sold far beyond 30,000 units and shows little signs of demand slowing down. The product is regarded as innovative and favorite among Moog enthusiasts and musicians. My prediction of a small number of early adopters and limited product lifecycle was incorrect. And that learning proved to be extremely valuable for my future collaborations and product development support. Looking back, here are 4 mistakes I made: 

Oops, 4 Times Over 

1. Too Much Focus on the Negatives

I erred in focusing on the lack of features or specifications. When I looked at the market, I found products in similar price points that  included more marketable features than ours. I was able to find a lack of or a shortcoming and this clouded my judgment. I felt the instrument was unique and more complex compared to previous offerings and could be hard to understand and train customers on.  I didn't value the uniqueness, instead I saw what it lacked. What I failed to miss was that the product didn’t need those features to meet its objective in being a new take on drum and rhythmic patterns. This instrument provided a fun way to create rhythmic patterns and it would easily lend itself to unpredictable and happy accidents. Even if it was hard to fundamentally understand, it was a joy to play. It didn’t need to compete against instruments that were not, even if those instruments could market more specs and features.

Lesson learned: dream about the possibilities as equally as you fear the worst case scenarios.

2. Missed the Innovation 

The product didn’t need a laundry list of spec or features because it was unlike any other product. There was not a direct market competitor. Sure there were drum machines and sophisticated solutions to creating a drum pattern or beat. But the DFAM had a vibe. It had a heart and soul and it was unique in how it inspired a musician to create. Its limited features encouraged and rewarded a creative environment which alone was unique. When there is a product that has no competition, that delivers a solution to a problem customers didn’t even know they had, forecasting off past experience isn’t effective. What you end up doing is only seeing the mountains in the distance instead of the large blue ocean in front of you.

Lesson learned: innovation is particularly hard to spot when you are judging it against the competition. 

3. A Ripe Market 

One of the biggest mistakes I made in forming my opinion was failing to see the condition of the market and the past events that made for a strong product roll out environment. It is easy to think that marketing is only impacting the present right now. We forget that good marketing is a branding effort that has a lasting impression. In the case of DFAM, astute customers had already been teased and previewed the product. Years prior, in 2016, Moogfest was held in Durham, NC. Moogfest, the headlining festival sponsored by Moog, gathers thousands of music enthusiasts for a 3 day event celebrating the synthesis of music, art and technology. This spring festival provided participants with daytime programming and workshops followed by evening concerts and art installations. One of the workshops was hosted by Moog’s engineers and allowed for a small number, about 100 participants, to build a synthesizer alongside Moog’s engineering team. The product built in 2016 was a prototype of the DFAM, a version that would later be improved upon to create the very product I was adamant had a limited audience. I missed that there was a buzz already present in the marketplace. That a 100 early adopters would be evangelizing this product on launch day, re-sharing their once in a lifetime memory of building early prototypes with Moog. I missed there was a built in story and it was a compelling one. Sure Moogfest happened years prior, but the story of it was still alive.

Lesson learned: Consider the state of the audience that is to receive the output of your effort. 

4. Listening

As I projected my viewpoints and opinions I failed to consider or adequately listen to those that disagreed. I focused on proving why my argument was valid instead of considering the challenges of my detractors. As I built my side of the story I didn't properly listen to the engineers who earnestly believed they had developed an instrument unlike any other. A creative tool that was contagiously fun to play. I didn’t consider their stories, which included talking to customers and discovering first hand what made them excited about its future release. When they said “you don’t understand” I countered by showing them the ways they didn’t understand my point. I did not expand my thinking or let challengers prove the potential flaws.

Lesson learned: Actively listen, especially when someone disagrees.

Summary 

In the end, my strong opinions did little to stand in the way of the success of DFAM. The consensus opted to be aware of the challenges I presented but not to limit its production. Instead, they believed in the innovation and trusted that customers were there. The instrument has enjoyed massive success compared to the original expectations and it is remarkable the amount of musicians who have been impacted by it. To me the DFAM is more than a fun instrument and creative tool (although I play it often). It is a reminder of some valuable lessons learned that can be applied to product development, or any kind of collaboration. That when forming your opinion be sure to weigh the possibilities, the positive outcomes as well as the negative ones. To pay particular attention when something is one of a kind, unlike any other. To be aware of the market, the audience you are providing solutions for. And finally, throughout the entire process, listen and pay particular attention when someone disagrees with you.

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